07/05/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Oswalt and Randy Johnson will have a tough time duplicating the magnificent performance from Tim Lincecum on Saturday when the two starters face off this afternoon in the finale of the three-game set between the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park.
Lincecum fired seven innings of three-hit shutout ball, and the Giants bats produced a second straight solid effort in a 9-0 win against the Astros on Saturday.
Fresh off being named the NL's Pitcher of the Month for June, Lincecum (9-2), won for the fifth time in his last six starts and for the ninth time in his last 10 decisions.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner for the Senior Circuit struck out nine, walked two and walked twice himself, scoring both times. He has now allowed two runs or less in eight of his last nine outings and has fanned at least eight batters in each of his last five starts.
"He is one of the best. Those elite players get on a roll and it's impressive. He is commanding all his pitches. It's enjoyable to watch," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said.
San Francisco pounded out the nine runs on 12 hits one day after taking the opener to this three-game set in similar fashion, 13-0. Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn had a pair of RBI each, while Pablo Sandoval reached base four times with two hits and two walks, driving in a run in the win.
Former Giants right-hander Russ Ortiz (3-4) was tagged for nine hits and eight runs with five walks in a 5 2/3-inning start. Houston had entered the series winners in six of its previous eight but have managed just seven hits in the first two games versus the Giants.
Johnson will once again try to hold the Astros' bats at bay this afternoon, as he attempts to win his third consecutive start and his fourth straight decision. Johnson won for the fifth time in his last six decisions on Tuesday in St. Louis, as he allowed just three runs and four hits in 5 1/3 innings to up his record to 8-5 to go along with a 4.70 ERA.
The 45-year-old left-hander has faced the Astros seven times and is 4-1 with a 3.64 ERA.
Oswalt, meanwhile, is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA on the year, but is coming off his best effort of the season in his last start. Oswalt went the distance to beat the San Diego Padres on Monday, limiting them to just a run and two hits, while striking out eight.
The 31-year-old righty is 4-5 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.98 ERA in 12 starts.
Houston and San Francisco are meeting for the first time since the Astros took seven of the eight meetings a year ago. Houston went 3-1 at AT&T Park in 2008.
The Giants last swept the Astros in a three-game set from May 21-23, 2007.
<< Phils hope to break out the brooms on the Mets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana goes for the New York Mets this afternoon,
as they try and avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the NL East-leading
Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
With wins in just three of its last 15 gam
<< Brewers, Cubs close series at Wrigley Field
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Burns hopes the Milwaukee Brewers have some runs
left in them this afternoon when they close out a four-game series with the
Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
After being shutout twice in their last six games and manag
<< Nolasco tries to win fourth straight decision in finale with Bucs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Nolasco tries to win his fourth consecutive start
this afternoon when the Florida Marlins play the rubber match of their three-
game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates at Land Shark Stadium.
Nolasco stretched his unbea
<< Diamondbacks send Haren to the hill in Colorado
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Dan Haren can continue a stretch of sterling
mound work today and earn his Arizona Diamondbacks a series win when they
visit Coors Field to wrap up a three-game weekend series with the Colorado
Rockies.
Haren
Marlins sign P Donnelly >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins made a move to bolster their
bullpen Sunday, signing free agent pitcher Brendan Donnelly.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The 38-year-old Donnelly has yet to pitch in the major
Kaymer beats Westwood in Paris playoff >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Kaymer defeated Lee Westwood in a
playoff Sunday to win the Open de France, rolling in a lengthy par putt on the
first extra hole to claim his third European Tour victory.
Kaymer closed with a th
Yankees place Wang on DL, recall Albaladejo >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang was
placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain, the club
announced on Sunday.
The right-hander left Saturday's 6-5, 12-inning victo
Federer tops Roddick in epic Wimbledon final for 15th major title >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer captured his sixth
Wimbledon title Sunday with a thrilling five-set victory over Andy Roddick and
established a record with his 15th career Grand Slam title.
Federer earned a 5-7,
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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